Japan Declares Latest El Niño the Strongest on Record as Global Experts Debate Pacific Warming Metrics

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) recently confirmed that the current El Niño warming phenomenon is the most severe one in the history of monitoring dating back to 1949. According to JMA statistics, water temperatures in the Niño 3 region of the east Pacific Ocean have reached levels higher than those witnessed during the 1997 incident.

But American and British meteorologists have not aggreed on declaring the same. NOAA of the United States keeps track of the neighboring area referred to as Niño 3.4 region. And the water temperatures in Nino 3.4 region remain slightly below previous record highs.

How Different Countries Track El Nino?

The following table tells us about how different countries around the world are measuring El Nino impact and records. Take a look for a reference to understand the current reports. 

What is El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Used by US?

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural tracker of weather that operates in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In normal conditions, constant trade winds move warm water westward towards Asia and Australia while cold water appears off South America.

During an El Niño phase, trade winds slacken or even change their direction completely. Warm water moves eastward, towards America. The change in air masses causes the change in weather patterns worldwide.

When it comes to the contrary process, when strong trade winds move cold water eastwards, it is termed La Niña. Neutral years lie in between.

Which Country Feels the Heaviest Impact from El Niño?

El Niño are responsible for changing weather worldwide. But there are countries along the equator feel the direct hit first:

• Peru and Ecuador: Sudden warm ocean currents disrupt local fishing grounds while coastal land sees unusually heavy rain and sudden floods.

• India: Disrupted trade winds historically trigger a deficit in the Southwest Monsoon and affected summer crop yields and reservoir levels.

• Indonesia and Australia: Warm water drifts away. It leaves affected regions prone to severe dry spells, crop failure, and wild bushfires.

• Horn of Africa: Disrupted wind patterns usually bring unusual heavy rains and flooding to eastern African nations.

Also Read - Of 16 El Niño Events Since 1950, 5 Caused Severe Indian Droughts: Why 2027 Will Be Hotter Than 2026

Why Weather Agencies Use Different El Niño Measuring Sticks

The mismatch in weather reports comes down to four main technical choices:

1. Different Target Zones: Japan monitors the eastern Pacific (Niño 3). The US and India focus on the east-central region (Niño 3.4).

2. Regional Metrics: India's IMD combines Pacific Niño 3.4 numbers with Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) readings to measure direct rainfall deviations over South Asia.

3. Atmospheric Linking: The US requires the ocean and the atmosphere to shift together, meaning trade winds must weaken alongside rising sea temperatures before declaring a full record.

4. Rising Ocean Averages: As baseline ocean temperatures rise over the decades, comparing today's peaks with events from 30 or 50 years ago requires different baseline calculations.